Splitting the Vote in Livingstone Macleod 031723

 Splitting the Vote in Livingstone Macleod - A Bogeyman

Morgan Wilson

            Looking at the way things have trended in the last 3 elections, it's pretty clear the pendulum has swung to its limits for all of the parties. Of note is the big jump in support for the Alberta Party provincially from 2015 to 2019. In Livingstone Macleod, the AP has more support than the Liberals, Green and Independence put together.

            338 Canada polling is projecting a UCP win in Livingstone Macleod. 60% UCP (+/-8%) and 30% NDP (+/- 7%). The projected change in votes since the 2019 election is showing UCP slipping from 70.4% to 60%. The NDP is gaining from 20.8% to 30%. It's safe to say that the NDP is gaining votes from the UCP faithful who can't stomach what has become of the UCP as they have for the last three elections. The Alberta Party is projected to capture 3 to 5% of the vote, pretty much unchanged from 2019.

            So, if there are UCP votes flowing out of the party, they're up for grabs. Particularly if they are going to the NDP reluctantly. If the Alberta Party can offer a viable option for those disgruntled voters, they might capture enough to eke out a win. Remember in 2015, the NDP almost quadrupled its votes and in 2019 gained another 2.5%. At the same time, the PCs and Wildrose bled voters as they became disenfranchised with a scandal ridden, fractured far right of center option. It's safe to assume those voters went NDP because there was no other moderate option.

            For all intents and purposes vote splitting in Livingstone Macleod is a bogeyman. There's room here for another party, particularly one that offers a home for moderates fatigued with the polarized, rage fuelled political climate that is ideology driven rather than policy driven.

            Enter the Alberta Party. They could have taken half of the UCP vote in 2019 and the NDP still couldn't have won. By all accounts the feeling on the ground is that there is a large contingent of Livingstone Macleod voters who consider themselves politically homeless. They're also less likely to participate in polling so there's no telling how big that section is. If done properly, I'm betting the Alberta Party could easily claim 20% of the voters from both the UCP and NDP. Add to that some of the 30-50% of people who do not vote and there could easily be a race. Getting out the Vote (GOTV) is going to be the mission.

            To say: "I really like that platform but if I vote there, so and so will steal the election and we just can't have that" is the antithesis of Democracy. The sanctity of a ballot is not a meaningless thing. It's a privilege given us by sacrifice and sober thought by people who knew what absolute rule by unaccountable tyrants looks like. To cast a vote without regard for that providence disrespects the pedigree of that institution. You don't get what you vote against, you get what you vote for.  

            There are 87 electoral districts in Alberta. There's a good chance about 86 of those don't care what happens in Livingstone Macleod. By voting in protest you're caring a lot more about them than your friends, neighbors, and communities. Restore a functioning democracy, vote for the best candidate. Make a list of what's important to you. Learn about the policies - of all of the parties and compare them to your list. Check the boxes. Then vote. By all means vote, or someday you might not have that privilege.

           

           

           

Alberta Election Splits and Changes

Livingstone Macleod

 

Alberta Party	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Number of votes Change	Percentage Change
	2019	1276	5.1%

 

Alberta New Democrat Party	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Number of votes Change	Percentage Change
	2012	944	5.2%
	2015	4228	22.9%	+ 3284	+ 347%
	2019	5125	20.5%	+ 897	+ 21.2%

 

Alberta Liberal Party	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Number of votes Change	Percentage Change
	2012	346	1.9%
	2015	464	2.5%	+ 118	+ 34.1%
	2019	258	1.0%	- 206	- 44.4%

 

Progressive Conservative Party	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Number of votes Change	Percentage Change
	2012	7385	41.4%
	2015	6404	34.7%	- 981	- 13.3%

 

Wildrose Alliance	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Number of votes Change	Percentage Change
	2012	8577	48%
Wildrose Party	2015	7362	39.9%	-1215	- 14.2%

 

PC and Wildrose Aggregate	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Number of votes Change	Percentage Change
	2012	15962	63.9%
	2015	13766	74.55	-2196	-13.9%
UCP	2019	17644	70.6%	+ 3878	+ 28.2%

 

Election Splits and Changes

Provincial Results

 

Alberta Party	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Number of votes Change	Percentage Change
	2012	16959	1.31%
	2015	33221	2.23%	+ 16262	+ 96%
	2019	172203	9.1%	+ 138982	+ 418%

 

Alberta New Democrat Party	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Change in Number of Votes	Percentage Change
	2012	127074	9.85%
	2015	604518	40.62%	+ 477444	+ 375%
	2019	619921	32.7%	+ 15403	+ 2.55%

 

Alberta Liberal	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Number of votes Change	Percentage Change
	2012	127626	9.89%
	2015	62153	4.18%	-65473	-51.3%
	2019	18544	1.0%	-43609	-70.1%

 

Progressive Conservative Party	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Number of votes Change	Percentage Change
	2012	567312	43.97%
	2015	413610	27.79%	-153702	-27.2

 

Wildrose Alliance	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Number of votes Change	Percentage Change
	2012	442325	34.28%
Wildrose Party	2015	360511	24.22%	-81841	-18.5%

 

PC and Wildrose Aggregate	Year	Number of Votes	Percentage of Total Votes	Number of votes Change	Percentage Change
	2012	1009637	78.25%
	2015	774121	52.21%	- 235516	- 23.3%
UCP	2019	1040563	54.9%	+ 266442	+ 34.4%